On January 8, 2024, the Institute of Carbon Neutrality (ICON) at Tsinghua University released a landmark new report on “Technology Outlook on Wind and Solar Power toward China’s Carbon Neutrality Goal.” Against the backdrop of China's dual carbon goals to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, the report highlights the pivotal role of wind and solar power in promoting low-carbon development and achieving a clean energy transition. The report outlines the rapid future expansion of wind and solar power generation and discusses the opportunities and challenges for the entire industry in terms of technology innovation, costs, supply security, and ecological benefits and risks.

The report predicts that China's future wind and solar power generation will experience exponential growth. To achieve the 2060 carbon neutrality goal, the installed capacity of wind and photovoltaics (PV) in China is expected to increase more than ten times the 2020 level. Meanwhile, with continuous improvements in technology and efficiency, the amount of electricity generated from wind and solar in 2060 is projected to be over thirteen times that of 2020. The report estimates that by 2030, 2035, 2040, 2050, and 2060, the total installed capacity of wind and PV will account for 45%, 55%, 65%, 75%, and 83%, respectively, of China’ total installed power capacity. China's combined wind and solar capacity is expected to reach 2,200-2,400 GW by 2030 and 5,496-7,662 GW by 2060.

Based on the varied endowed wind and solar resources and existing energy installation characteristics in different regions, the report suggests specific development focuses for different areas in China, for example: onshore wind in Northern, Northwestern, and Northeastern China, offshore wind in Eastern and Southern China, centralized photovoltaics in Northern and Northwestern China, and distributed photovoltaic systems based on industrial and commercial building areas in Eastern, Central, and Southern China.

The report is the product of a collaborative effort led by ICON and involving various industry associations and research institutions, including Chinese Renewable Energy Industries Association, Chinese Wind Energy Association, China Photovoltaic Industry Association, China Power Engineering Consulting Group, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China Association for Desertification Control and Sand Industry, and Chinese Academy of Forestry. It is the result of a series of forums and salons focusing on carbon neutrality technologies, which provided a solid foundation for ongoing collaboration and dialogue among experts.

This report is the first in a new series of Technology Outlooks for Carbon Neutrality in China, a research collaboration between Energy Foundation China and ICON. More reports covering other technological domains are coming soon. The report is the first milestone deliverable of EF China’s third-phase program under the Long-Term Strategy for Decarbonization Task Force. This program aims to provide technical support for China's carbon neutrality strategy by organizing experts to develop technological roadmaps for key areas, such as wind and solar, energy storage, hydrogen energy, and carbon capture utilization and storage, aligned with China's national conditions.

At the report’s launch event, over 20 leading experts shared their views on the critical role of rapid wind and solar development in China to address the global climate crisis, accelerate green and low carbon transformation, and achieve global renewable energy goals. Key speakers included Academician He Kebin, President of ICON; Zou Ji, CEO and President of EF China; Li Junfeng, Inaugural Director of the National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation; and Wang Can, Professor at School of Environment of Tsinghua University. The launch event was attended by representatives from over ten mainstream media outlets, and included over 200,000 online viewers.